Hello! We are going to be in Japan during the early blooming cherry blossom , and would love to see it. does anyone know what the forecast is like? I read the festival is Feb 10-Mar 10. We are debating to go either at the beginning of our trip around Feb 18/19 or end of the trip around March 6/7 so I'm just trying to figure out when would best for the full bloom considering Japan's current weather. Feedback appreciated, thank you!
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The latest observations state there is a bit of a cold wave which might delay things a bit, making March 6-7 a little more appealing. Nobody knows the weather really, so it is always a roll of the dice.
I suggest you keep your eyes on the official site which keeps track of everything going on there.
http://www.kawazuzakura.net
http://www.kawazuzakura.net/kaikainfo.html
Genboku (the original) was at 10% on 4 Feb 2018.
http://www.kawazuzakura.net/kaikainfo/index.php?area=1
This site lists five places.
https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/kaika.html
Currently, I could see the 2017 status. If I selected the word Mankai (full bloom) strictly, the full bloom period did not overlay among the areas. But 20-21 Feb 2017 looks the best to me. You should find your preference by comparing the images; such as 70% or near 100%.
Imaihama 17-20 Feb 2017 https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/imai.html
Kawazu River 20 Feb 2017 https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/kawa.html
Genboku 10-19 Feb 2017 https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/genboku.html
Mine Onsen 21 Feb 2017 https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/mine.html
Nanataki 22-23 Feb 2017 https://www.kawazu-onsen.com/sakura/taki.html
This site has a report on 6 Feb 2018, saying 0-10%. Because of the persistent cold days, they forecast that the blooming would be in a peak in a later half of the festival season; that means after 25 Feb.
http://kaikainfo.i-ra.jp/e1080361.html
This site was issued on 5 Feb 2018. They state that the best is from mid-Feb to early March on an average year. They also forecast some delays with these colder temperatures these days. In the cold year of 2015, they say the blossoms were beautiful until 9 Mar, but not on 11 Mar due to the leaves.
https://hanasjoho.com/archives/7137
This sites list some of the places where we could see cherry blossoms in February.
https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/kaika_2.html
And this is a table by the data extracted from the above. It is sorted by the starts and ends of the cherry blossom seasons.
Atami Izu early Jan Mid-Feb 58 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_655.html
Ito Onsen Izu Mid-Jan late Mar https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_526.html
Hokoen Chiba late Jan late Feb https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_695.html
Kawazu Izu early Feb early Mar 8000 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_230.html
Sengan-en Kagoshima early Feb early Apr 150 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_503.html
Mitsuike Koen Kanagawa early Feb Mid-Apr 1600 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_160.html
Minami Izu Mid-Feb early Mar 800 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_973.html
Matsudayama Kanagawa Mid-Feb early Mar 360 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_825.html
Miura Kaigan Kanagawa Mid-Feb early Mar https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_710.html
Yodosuiro Kyoto Mid-Feb late Mar 200 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_908.html
Yoyogi Koen Tokyo Mid-Feb early Apr 700 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_128.html
Hamamatsu Shizuoka Mid-Feb early Apr https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_971.html
Sakuma Dam Chiba Mid-Feb Mid-Apr 2000 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_627.html
Shinjuku Gyoen Tokyo Mid-Feb late Apr 1100 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_110.html
Onomi Yamaguchi late Feb early Mar 100 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_689.html
Kangunzuka Chiba late Feb Mid-Mar https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_676.html
Mishima Shizuoka late Feb early Apr 200 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_1221.html
Misato Saitama late Feb early Apr https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_1126.html
Among them, Kawazu is outstanding with 8,000 cherry trees. If you chose to visit Kawazu in February and it turned out to be too early, there would be only three alternatives including Atami. In the other extreme case, if you tried to go to Kawazu in March, but the peak had already passed, you would have more choices, such as Mitsuike Park and Shinjuku Gyoen.